Alex Pereira dominated 2024, but as we move into a new year, questions arise about his continued success.
The light heavyweight champion has had an impressive run, though some argue his title defenses have been against opponents who couldn’t exploit his weaknesses in grappling. UFC 313 will be a true test as Pereira faces the formidable Magomed Ankalaev.
Ankalaev is known for his striking, but he has also demonstrated strong wrestling skills, which could be crucial in solving the “Poatan Puzzle.”
MMA experts Alexander K. Lee, Mike Heck, and Jed Meshew discuss the potential end of Pereira’s winning streak and other key aspects of UFC 313.
Lee: To beat Alex Pereira, Magomed Ankalaev needs to utilize a mixed martial arts approach, blending striking and grappling.
While Ankalaev is a skilled striker and a knockout win over Pereira would elevate his status, relying solely on striking against Pereira is risky. Ankalaev’s best strategy would be to use his wrestling and grappling skills. However, I believe Ankalaev might use his wrestling to initially disrupt Pereira, creating openings for strikes later in the fight. Pereira’s reign might end dramatically.
Meshew: It would be surprising if Ankalaev knocked out Pereira. Pereira is the superior striker, but Ankalaev is powerful, and MMA is unpredictable. Pereira has also been very active, and fighting frequently can take a toll. An upset is possible.
However, if Ankalaev wins, it will likely be through grappling, not striking. Pereira’s wrestling defense is underrated but not as strong as a dedicated wrestler like Jose Aldo. Ankalaev’s path to victory lies in his grappling dominance.
Heck: I predict Pereira will win. But if Pereira’s run ends, it will be a fight where Dana White might describe it as uneventful, similar to Leon Edwards’ win over Belal Muhammad.
Ankalaev is a very strong fighter, and early and consistent takedowns could lead him to victory. But if he sticks to striking, as he has suggested, it will likely favor Pereira. If Ankalaev wins, it will probably be a fight dominated by grappling, with Pereira spending a significant amount of time on his back.
Heck: Should Rafael Fiziev get a title shot? Realistically, no. But in the UFC, especially in the current climate, availability and exciting fights can be key. It’s not impossible, but unlikely without something extraordinary happening.
I don’t think Fiziev has a high chance unless he delivers a spectacular knockout against Justin Gaethje. Gaethje is favored by the UFC and Dana White, and a dominant win, especially a finish, against Fiziev could put him in title contention. The question then becomes who would he face, especially if Jack Della Maddalena defeats Belal Muhammad at UFC 315, potentially disrupting lightweight title plans.
Lee: Yes, the lightweight title picture could become vacant.
Following up, if Della Maddalena upsets Muhammad, it could lead to Islam Makhachev moving to welterweight, Muhammad moving to middleweight, and Ilia Topuria facing the UFC 313 co-main event winner for the vacant lightweight belt.
It sounds chaotic, but 2025 could be unpredictable. Why not expect something unexpected like Topuria vs. Fiziev for the lightweight title? Even wilder scenarios are possible, like Jon Jones vs. Tom Aspinall.
Let’s embrace the craziness.
Meshew: No, Fiziev doesn’t deserve a title shot immediately. If Fiziev wins against Gaethje, it’s a good win, but he lost his previous two fights. If Gaethje wins, it’s also a good win, but he was recently knocked out by Max Holloway. Neither is likely to fight for the title next without significant changes. This fight seems more about determining who fights Dan Hooker next, which feels somewhat repetitive.
However, if Della Maddalena beats Muhammad, Makhachev might move to welterweight, potentially opening up title opportunities, possibly for Topuria vs. Oliveira or Arman Tsarukyan.
This will be an exciting fight, but its immediate impact on the title picture is limited, which is unfortunate given Gaethje’s career stage.
Meshew: The most exciting fight to watch is Joshua Van vs. Rei Tsuruya, but the fighter I’m most interested in is Jalin Turner.
I’m a big fan of Turner because he’s a large lightweight with a unique and exciting style, despite some flaws. Turner is in a tough spot and needs to defend his top-15 ranking. He needs to prove he’s still a top contender. Ignacio Bahamondes is a strong opponent, but I expect Turner to dominate and remind everyone of his potential in the division.
Heck: My fighter to watch is Mauricio Ruffy.
Like Jean Silva and Carlos Prates, Ruffy is very entertaining to watch. It’s guaranteed to be an exciting fight. The question is his ceiling. Will he be a consistently exciting fighter who remains in the mid-ranks, or can he climb to the top of the division?
Saturday’s fight won’t fully answer this, but if he decisively beats a veteran like King Green, it will suggest he has the potential for more.
Lee: For me, it’s Mairon Santos, a Ultimate Fighter winner.
Despite being recognized as a top prospect in Brazil back in 2021, Santos was picked surprisingly late in TUF 32. He won his way to the finale and defeated Kaan Ofli to win the tournament. Still young, Santos is training with Eric Nicksick and has the potential to be a promising featherweight.
A strong performance against Francis Marshall will set Santos up for a significant 2025 and potentially a top-15 ranking in 2026.
