Manel Kape is closer than ever to a flyweight title shot. The plan was set: defeat Brandon Royval at UFC Vegas 103 to secure a championship opportunity against Alexandre Pantoja. However, Royval’s injury led to Asu Almabayev stepping in, changing the landscape.
Despite the opponent change, a win should still solidify Kape’s status as the top contender. He is currently ranked No. 10 in the flyweight division. While Pantoja has faced many top contenders already, Almabayev presents a potentially tougher challenge than Royval. The path to the top is never straightforward.
Don’t underestimate Almabayev, ranked No. 13. An upset victory over Kape could put him in title contention. With a 4-0 UFC record and a 17-fight winning streak (21-2 overall), Almabayev defeating Kape would make a strong case for a title shot.
Main Event Prediction: Kape vs. Almabayev
If Manel Kape performs as he did against Bruno “Bulldog” Silva, he could defeat anyone, even Alexandre Pantoja. Kape’s performance at UFC Tampa against Silva was exceptional, showcasing the potential everyone has anticipated since his RIZIN debut five years prior.
Asu Almabayev might adopt similar strategies to Muhammad Mokaev’s decision win over Kape, but Almabayev is a more aggressive ground fighter. While not a Mark Coleman-esque wrestler, Almabayev’s ability to score points and maintain control could impress the judges.
Kape needs to avoid a decision. Almabayev’s striking defense will be tested by Kape’s speed and diverse angles of attack. A weak takedown attempt from Almabayev could open him up to a devastating counter knee from Kape.
Prediction: Almabayev
Co-Main Event Misnomer
The fight between Julian Marquez and Cody Brundage is not a true co-main event. It lacks the stakes, ranked fighters, or established fan favorites typically associated with a co-main event. It’s more accurately described as the penultimate bout.
Julian Marquez, stepping in for Ryan Loder, is on a three-fight losing streak, with his last win in April 2021 against Sam Alvey. Cody Brundage was winless in 2024 and is 10-6 overall (excluding a no-contest). This matchup isn’t a clash of titans.
Prediction: Brundage by decision
Lightweight Bout: Haqparast vs. Ribovics
This lightweight matchup between Nasrat Haqparast and Esteban Ribovics is a more deserving co-main event. It promises to be an exciting striking battle, perhaps better suited for a larger arena than the UFC APEX.
The smaller cage might intensify the action, favoring Ribovics and his punishing combinations. However, Haqparast’s powerful left hand can change the fight at any moment. Expect a potential Fight of the Night contender, with Ribovics likely to win by landing more significant power shots.
Prediction: Ribovics
Featherweight Matchup: Gomis vs. Amil
William Gomis is often compared to Leon Edwards, a skilled and consistent fighter who knows how to win. Undefeated in the UFC (4-0), Gomis recently secured a split decision victory over Joanderson Brito.
Hyder Amil is a less experienced and unproven fighter with knockout potential. His best chance is to catch Gomis early, which is difficult against the defensively sound Frenchman.
Prediction: Gomis
Welterweight Contest: Barlow vs. Patterson
Danny Barlow and Sam Patterson are tall welterweights with contrasting styles. Barlow is more tactical and calculated, while Patterson is more of a counter-striker and grappler.
Barlow’s approach might be advantageous, as he is better at dictating the pace. While Patterson has shown more finishing ability, Barlow’s controlled style could lead to victory.
Prediction: Barlow by knockout
Preliminary Card Results
- Mario Pinto def. Austen Lane
- Chepe Mariscal def. Ricardo Ramos
- Danny Silva def. Lucas Almeida
- JJ Aldrich def. Andrea Lee
- Ramazan Temirov def. Charles Johnson
