UFC is back at the APEX arena this weekend with UFC Vegas 103. The main event is a flyweight bout at short notice between Manel Kape and Asu Almabayev. Originally, Kape was set to fight Brandon Royval in a No. 1 contender match. This change has created uncertainty as these two fighters compete in the main event. Despite a somewhat unmemorable fight card overall, there are still interesting matchups and chances for successful betting.
The main event on Saturday has surprisingly wide odds. Although Manel Kape is a popular fighter and Asu Almabayev is a late replacement, the matchup presents stylistic challenges for Kape. Almabayev’s grappling style can neutralize Kape’s striking abilities. While Kape has improved his ground game, he can still be taken down. Muhammad Mokaev previously defeated Kape using takedowns. Almabayev, while not as athletic as Mokaev, is a more seasoned ground fighter currently. If Almabayev has the stamina for a full 25 minutes, he is likely to win.
Similarly to the main event, Cody Brundage is surprisingly not favored in his fight against Julian Marquez. Marquez is on a three-fight losing streak and has shown weaknesses in wrestling defense. Unless Marquez secures a guillotine choke, Brundage should control the fight. While Brundage has been submitted before, Marquez is not as strong on the ground as opponents like Bo Nickal or Rodolfo Vieira.
Andrea Lee is an underdog against JJ Aldrich in a preliminary fight, which seems illogical. Despite being on a five-fight losing streak, many of those fights were close. Aldrich is not a particularly strong opponent. Lee has better striking and wrestling skills than Aldrich. Without the losing streak, Lee would likely be the favorite.
Mario Pinto, making his UFC debut against Austen Lane, is a prospect to watch. Pinto impressed in the recent season of Contender Series and is compared to Alex Pereira due to his size, composure, and striking power. This style is effective against Lane, who has lost all five of his career losses by knockout. Five of Pinto’s nine wins are also by KO, making a Pinto KO victory likely.
Danny Barlow vs. Sam Patterson fight is predicted to end Under 1.5 Rounds. Barlow is known for neglecting defense and focusing on quick finishes. Patterson also aims for fast finishes. A majority of both fighters’ previous fights have ended quickly, suggesting this one will too.
There is no parlay this week due to limited appealing betting lines. A potential Portugal Parlay with Kape and Pinto is not viable because Almabayev is favored instead of Kape.
Last week’s bets were unsuccessful. Hopefully, this week will bring better results.
Enjoy the fights, good luck, and remember to gamble responsibly!
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