The highly anticipated fight between Alex Pereira and Magomed Ankalaev is finally happening.
This Saturday at UFC 313 in Las Vegas, Pereira will defend his light heavyweight championship against Ankalaev. Many fans believe Ankalaev poses the biggest threat to Pereira in the division. Will this be proven true, and what are the paths to victory for each fighter to claim UFC gold? Let’s explore.
This is the fourth time I’ve written about Pereira’s paths to victory in the last year. It’s becoming challenging to find new angles on “Poatan.” Everyone understands Pereira’s strengths, yet no one at 205 pounds has been able to defeat him.
Pereira’s fighting style is fundamentally based on two main weapons. While he possesses a variety of techniques, everything comes down to his left hook and low kicks. These are his most dangerous tools in MMA today. Although his devastating left hook gets most of the attention, it’s the more subtle, yet damaging, low kicks that are likely to be Pereira’s primary weapon for victory this Saturday.
Like in The Odyssey, where Circe advised Odysseus to choose Scylla over Charybdis to minimize losses, opponents facing Pereira are often so focused on avoiding the knockout left hook that they become vulnerable to his low kicks. These kicks weaken their legs, significantly hindering them as the fight progresses. This is a major concern for Ankalaev, who has shown weakness in defending low kicks. Jan Blachowicz almost defeated Ankalaev using mostly calf kicks. Pereira is a far superior kicker to Blachowicz.
Therefore, Pereira’s strategy for Saturday is straightforward: target Ankalaev’s legs with low kicks. It’s one of Pereira’s greatest strengths and Ankalaev’s biggest vulnerabilities. It’s a simple equation. Pereira should continuously attack Ankalaev’s legs. Ankalaev will likely try to wrestle, but this will become more difficult as his legs weaken. By consistently kicking his legs early and often, Ankalaev should become an easier target in the later rounds. Also, using teep kicks will be effective in maintaining distance.
Despite the above analysis suggesting Ankalaev is at a disadvantage, he is a very dangerous opponent. In fact, Ankalaev has the best chance of anyone in the light heavyweight division to defeat Pereira, for several reasons.
Ankalaev’s strongest asset is his grappling. Although Pereira is a BJJ black belt, most believe he is more vulnerable on the ground than in striking exchanges. Ankalaev is a top wrestler in the light heavyweight division and has successfully taken down every opponent he has attempted to. Pereira has been taken down by Jan Blachowicz, who is not as strong a wrestler as Ankalaev, suggesting Ankalaev will likely secure takedowns on Saturday.
If Ankalaev can take the fight to the ground, it will become very challenging for Pereira. Ankalaev excels at punishing opponents from top position. Anthony Smith experienced this firsthand, and Jan Blachowicz also struggled underneath Ankalaev. When Ankalaev achieves takedowns, he makes them count, something Blachowicz couldn’t consistently do against Pereira.
However, Ankalaev doesn’t have to rely solely on grappling. While he is vulnerable to low kicks, Ankalaev is also a dangerous striker with significant power, excellent timing, and a strong right hand, which he can use effectively both as a counter and from a lead southpaw stance. Additionally, Ankalaev has a solid chin, having only been dropped once and never been knocked out in his career. While Pereira is the superior striker overall, MMA history is full of instances where the “better striker” lost.
This isn’t to suggest Ankalaev should try to outstrike Pereira, but it highlights the importance of being well-rounded in MMA. At the highest levels, fighters cannot ignore any aspect of the sport. If Ankalaev solely focuses on takedowns, he will likely fail. However, by demonstrating his striking ability, he can create openings for grappling and increase his chances of winning.
Beyond fight strategy, other factors make this fight intriguing. For Pereira, this is his fourth fight in less than a year, a demanding schedule at this level, especially with travel and other commitments. Will he be fully focused? Will it even matter if he isn’t? It’s uncertain.
For Ankalaev, he is competing during Ramadan. While he is making some adjustments to his fasting, it’s still a significant factor when considering weight cutting and mental preparation for a crucial fight. To my knowledge, this is only the second time Ankalaev has fought during Ramadan, and the stakes are much higher than his previous fight in 2016.
Prediction
Logically, this seems like a favorable matchup for Pereira. Ankalaev has a clear weakness for him to exploit, and while Ankalaev is a good wrestler, Pereira’s takedown defense is underrated. However, there are unsettling feelings surrounding this fight week. It feels like the MMA world is overlooking Ankalaev, already planning superfights for Pereira with Jon Jones and Tom Aspinall. Pereira’s busy schedule is also concerning. There’s a reason champions don’t fight this often: eventually, things go wrong.
Against my rational analysis, my gut feeling is that Ankalaev will knock out Pereira with a right hand sometime in the middle rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev def. Alex Pereira via KO (punch) at 3:07 of Round 2.
